A prolonged pause to shipments would shock the global economy. Last summer, after a brief conflict also involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran threatened to shut the strait down, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies modeled the impact of a potential closure lasting more than a year, finding that 15% of global liquefied natural gas supply would be wiped out, with Europe, China, India, and Japan hit the hardest in terms of lost imports.
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Zandi acknowledged the possibility that AI could be serving as a convenient cover story. “Of course, AI could be a smoke screen for other, less flattering reasons for the cuts,” he wrote, “but I suspect not.” And even if it were, he argued, the effect on the broader labor market may be the same, referring to Block’s stock surge following the announcement.